Men’s Olympic Marathon Trials Preview — Contenders, Dark Horses, Predictions
Some people act like there aren’t terrific male marathoners in the United States. That simply could not be further from the truth. There are nearly 30 men that have run under 2:13 in the qualifying window. There are dozens more who have the potential to do so. There are also some guys who have run very fast half marathons that should be treated as contenders on race day. Let’s take a look at who will be favored to make the marathon team and represent the United States at the Tokyo Olympics.
The Big 4: Leonard Korir, Galen Rupp, Scott Fauble, Jared Ward. I know that I just told you that we have a really great crop of marathon talent in this country. The reality, however, is that the first three across the finish line could very well come from only this small list of four names.
Leonard Korir has been dominant at race distances from half marathon and under the last several years. He has won a number of USATF Championships. He ran his much anticipated marathon debut in Amsterdam last fall and ran 2:07:56 after going through the halfway mark in a time very few on the start line could do and still put together a complete race. With Rupp’s documented injury struggles, Korir might just be the favorite to win this race. He will be very difficult to beat this weekend.
Like him or not, Galen Rupp has been America’s best marathoner since 2016. He won a bronze at the Rio Olympics in the marathon. He has won the Chicago Marathon. He ran 2:06 in Prague. He ran another 2:06 in Chicago in 2018. He has not, however, finished a marathon since then. He dropped out of Chicago in 2019. The Nike Oregon Project recently came crashing to a halt. He switched coaches to Mike Smith, the Director of Cross Country and Track coach at the University of Northern Arizona. Galen quietly hopped in the Phoenix Half Marathon two and a half weeks ago, running 1:01 to beat Sam Chelenga and Matt Llano. Both of those two guys are considered contenders to make the team. If Galen is fully healthy, it will be hard to deny him a podium finish.
Jared Ward is one of America’s most consistent marathoners. He made his first US Olympic team in 2016 and has not looked back. He ran 2:09 at Boston in 2019 and then followed that up with a 2:10 to finish 6th at the 2019 New York City Marathon. Jared was then the top American at the 2020 Houston Half Marathon, taking down many Trials competitors in the process. Jared always seems to run smart and within himself. He is a racer that has excelled at difficult courses like Boston and New York. He is going to be a tough out.
Scott Fauble probably has the biggest fan base of anyone in the Big 4. He is open about his training, his goals, and his love of burritos. Faubs ran 2:09 to finish right in front of Jared at the 2019 Boston Marathon. After that historic day for Northern Arizona Elite, he battled some injuries through the summer and fall. He is back to training and his coach, Ben Rosario, will have him ready to go on race day. I expect him to be in the hunt for a podium finish the entire way. Nobody should be overlooking this guy. He seems to thrive when his back is up against the wall.
The Contenders: There are too many people to name but I’ll try to give you some people to watch out for.
Jacob Riley, Jerrell Mock, and Andrew Bumbalough are the only other three people who ran sub-2:11 in this Olympic cycle. They all did that at the 2019 Chicago Marathon, which had great running weather for the first time in a long time. We’ll have to see if they can duplicate these performances on a much more difficult course. Sub-2:13 might be what will get you into that coveted top-3 on the hilly Atlanta course. We know they can do that easily on a fast course but can they replicate that success against this high caliber field?
This is where I’m going to get into some trouble. There are too many guys in this range who could sneak up on a top-3 spot. You have my full apologies if I did not give you a mention.
We have to talk about Abdi Abdirahman and Bernard Lagat. Someone remind me what year it is? Abdi just ran 2:11 at NYC. Bernard ran 2:12 at Gold Coast. Both had the potential and the lifetime mileage to reach the podium. Dathan Ritzenhein deserves a shout out too. He is too talented to be excluded in this discussion. Many forget that he ran a 1:01 half marathon just one year ago.
Here is my last batch of names: Scott Smith, Elkaneh Kibet, Diego Estrada, Tim Ritchie, Connor McMillan, Andrew Colley, Brogan Austin, Ryan Vail, Chris Derrick, Shadrack Biwott, Reed Fischer, Stanley Kebenei, Jim Walmsley, CJ Albertson, Luke Puskedra, Haron Lagat, Tyler Pennel.
Each runner in there has shown flashes of brilliance during their running careers. They’ll need to put together career days to get into the top-3, top-5, and even the top-10. I believe, however, that the marathon is unpredictable enough that one of these guys can knock it out of the park and be in the hunt in the final 5k.
Not-So-Bold-Prediction Time: 1) Leonard Korir 2) Scott Fauble 3) Jared Ward.
Winning time: 2:11:53. Final podium spot: 2:12:53. 4th place: 2:13:05.
I’m beyond excited to see how this race plays out. I kept it safe with my predictions but I would love to see someone else run the race of their lives to come out of nowhere to make this team.
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