Overanalyzing the Houston Half Marathon — What does this tell us about the looming Olympic Marathon Trials?

The Houston Half Marathon has become the marquee winter race in the United States for elite athletes. The race attracts plenty of international talent, but is the destination of choice for our finest distance runners. With the Olympic Marathon Trials looming in just six weeks, this race presented many competitors the opportunity to get in a tune-up race. Before I get going, I’ll say a few things. I’m definitely going to overanalyze this race. It would be a mistake to not say that a flat half marathon on a good weather day might not be the best predictor of where people will finish in Atlanta at the end of February. We could get a warm and/or humid day for the Trials. The course is going to be hilly. What these results do tell us, however, is who is on schedule to put together a good day. We do not fully know where people are at in their training. We do not know who tapered more than others. I ran a half marathon slower than my eventual fall marathon when my goal race was 5 weeks out. Let’s take a look at how the races played out up front for the top Americans and then I’ll share a few more takeaways.

American Women: I want to start off by saying that American women’s running has been on fire for several years now and shows no signs of slowing down in 2020. To be in the top-20, you had to run under 1:11:35. Seven women broke 1:10:00 (5:20 pace). Another 3 women ran between 1:10:01 and 1:10:12. 1:11:35, on its own, indicates marathon potential under 2:30. Sara Hall took 1st place among American women by 36 seconds over Molly Huddle, who had to out-kick four other women in the closing stretch. Sara Hall is a known front runner. She is bold, fearless, and gutsy. She had already broken away from the pack at 10k, and only put more seconds between the chase pack on her way to the victory. She was the only woman to break 1:09 (1:08:58). Molly Huddle had the best PRs in the field at the half marathon and down. She said after the race that she is in full marathon training and got in over 20 miles on the day. Sara Hall is often overlooked when people get to talking about who will make the marathon team. People often gravitate to Des, Amy, Molly, Emily, Jordan, Kellyn, Emma, before mentioning Sara Hall. On paper, Hall has the third fastest marathon entering the Olympic Trials. She is one of three runners who has run 2:22 or better in this cycle. She ran her time this past fall, while the two others who have run faster than her, Jordan and Amy, ran their times farther back. Jordan and Amy have been battling injuries recently. My not so controversial overreaction is that Sara Hall should be a favorite heading into Atlanta. She can definitely make this team and should not be an afterthought in any race preview.

I still feel good about Molly Huddle (1:09:34). She has shown she can run fast at shorter distances. Maybe her effort yesterday was more appropriate given where she is at in her build-up. Molly Seidel finished third in 1:09:35 and is debuting in the marathon at the Trials. I am super intrigued about her comeback to elite level fitness and will be rooting for her. Katy Jermann ran a big PR and was given the same finish time. Lindsay Flanagan (9th, 2019 Boston Marathon) finished 5th. Aliphine Tuliamuk finished 7th and has been doing some insane workouts lately if you’ve been following NAZ Elite on Strava/Twitter/Facebook/Instagram. Laura Thweatt came in 10th. Nell Rojas (2019 Grandma’s Marathon Champ) came in 13th.

American Men: People who want to continue to trash American men for not being faster can keep doing that but my personal opinion is that you are wrong to do so. 14 men broke 1:02. I’m going to not fact check this but someone go out and find me a deeper half marathon for American men. There can’t be too many examples. American men are getting really good at the half marathon. I think we’ll see this translate to some more sub-2:10s in the near future. Olympian Jared Ward won the men’s race in 1:01:36. He out-kicked a lot of good guys in the pack to do so. This bodes well for his bid to make his second Olympic team. He is on track to get there and let everyone know that he will be ready to roll in six weeks. Reed Fischer of Tinman Elite was 2nd and crossed the line right after Ward in 1:01:37. Fischer was supposed to debut at the marathon this past fall in Chicago but had to withdraw due to an injury. Can he debut at the Trials and make the team like Rupp did in 2016? Nico Montanez had, perhaps, the most impressive day. He finished third but actually ran 1:01:34 (faster than Ward) based on his chip time. There are too many other guys that ran really, really well to name them all here. I don’t think any one result makes me think that the top-3 spots won’t go to the Big 4: Korir, Faubs, Ward, and Rupp. Is it a lock that the top-3 spots come from there? No. Absolutely not. But it’s still their race to lose. I do want to note that Sam Chelanga finished 12th in 1:01:52. He had previously retired from the sport and can run the Trials if that is his intention. Now for some quick takes.

Quick Take #1- Women are the true winners of this cycle leading up to the Trials. There are now more than 500 women qualified for the Trials. Some people (men) don’t like this. I think those people are wrong. Running is never going to be like basketball and football. I got into the sport when someone local to me qualified for the 2007/2008 Trials when the men’s standard was 2:22. He barely qualified but then ran a big PR at the Trials and placed well. I was inspired. If the standard was faster, who knows if he would have stuck with the sport and found his true potential. Knowing what his work ethic is like, I think he would have but I think USATF and others have a backwards way of thinking about this topic. Put the marathon trials on a track and invite the top-12 competitors if you think it’s only about the top-end elites. The stories that have been coming out about 2:18 & 2:44 qualifiers are honestly much more entertaining and inspiring than the stories about the pros who run twice a day and take naps. I don’t want that to be a knock. I follow all of those people but keeping the standards where they’re at or easing them a little bit will only help us grow the sport. I honestly think we would be better off back at 2:22 for the men and leaving the women’s standard at 2:45. We have the space on the roads to accommodate bigger fields. I want to be considerate of race directors but we could always attach the Trials to an established race. There is plenty of money in our sport with entry fees into major marathons soaring over $200 and $300 now. More of that money needs to go to elite athletes. Prize money should go 25 or 30 or, who cares, 50 deep at races that have money.

Quick Take #2- My heart goes out to the Peter Bromka’s of the world. He has run 2:19 3 separate times and will not be racing in Atlanta. He ran 2:19 at CIM in 2018, then ran 2:19:0x at CIM this past December, before taking one last shot at the Houston Marathon. He ran 2:19:19 and was less than 1 second a mile away from achieving his goal of being on that start line. His writing is great. It’s inclusive. It’s relatable. It, get this, helps the sport grow. It encourages people to chase big goals. This will be Exhibit 1 when I make my case for slightly softer time standards. The sport is better off with him running the Olympic Marathon Trials. Standards have to exist but, damn, this story left me feeling bummed.

Quick Take #3- Another race happened at the RNR Arizona Half Marathon. NAZ Elite sent a lot of their crew there and I like this move by Ben Rosario. Their athletes are in some intense training. There is no need to have an athlete questioning themselves if they would have finished 10th at a loaded Houston Half on tired legs. The course was a little short but their athletes looked good. Some of them didn’t make the start line with the flu so let’s hope they get healthy soon!

Quick Take #4- Jim Walmsley ran 1:02! But on the same slightly short course! It’s still worth 1:03-low and we know he can handle hills. I’m ready for him to mix it up with our best road runners.

Quick Take #5- Six more weeks! There probably won’t be any more tune-up races on the calendar for a lot of athletes. Many will do their biggest workouts in the next 3 or 4 weeks. Let’s see what comes up on social media and in print in the coming weeks and continue to get excited for #Atlanta2020.

Thanks for reading!